2023 was a slow year for medical office developments, with around 12 million square feet of projects that broke ground. This is about 45% lower than the average over the past decade. However, 12 million square feet is still a substantial increase in supply, and it is interesting to observe how different markets are reacting. In the graph below
For all of 2023 investors have been waiting for more clarity on the monetary policy path. The FOMC meeting last week provided what many have been waiting for. The median projection for the federal funds rate is now 4.6 for the end of 2024. This leaves room for three 25 basis point cuts throughout the year. While not shown in the graph below, the full range of forecasts for 2024 is 3.9 – 5.4. This indicates that all the meeting participants are predicting no rate hikes in 2024, which is a first for this year.
Development and acquisition activity is currently suppressed in the medical office sector. However, this does not reflect a wavering in the underlying performance of medical assets. The graph below is from our 3Q23 Industry Fundamentals Report, which tracks a group of large medical office portfolios containing approximately 150 million square feet. It shows the average NOI per occupied square foot, which has continued to tick up, now at a level of $23.20.
The year of 2023 has brought significant drops in sales activity across the commercial real estate sector. The higher cost of capital is driving investors into cautiousness and the healthcare real estate market is not immune …
Historically, Revista has categorized medical office buildings (MOBs) into two categories, on a hospital campus or off. However, recently Revista has developed a third category, adjacent. These are the properties that fall within a quarter mile of a hospital campus footprint. Conventional thought suggests that on-campus assets demand a premium, but what about the buildings just outside of a campus?
If you have been staying up to date with Revista’s most recent construction data, you know that over the past few quarters, construction has been down across the board. However, the magnitude of the depression may depend on the characteristics of the project.
Recently we’ve been observing a downward trend, which has been reinforced by the current quarter. On a quarterly basis, 2Q23 only had around 2 million square feet start construction.
Overall, Revista tracked 44.9 million square feet of outpatient developments in 2022, with 18.8 million (42%) being done by third-party developers
Despite economic headwinds, rehabilitation hospitals have seen escalated development over the past couple of years. The chart below focuses on the scope of projects that started construction each year. We …
If we look at construction starts over the past year, we can see that a handful of markets have remained very strong despite increasing market headwinds. At a national level, annualized construction starts have been stable throughout 2022, hovering around 26 million square feet.
An inversion of the yield curve is a well-known indicator of a coming economic downturn. Using the difference between the 10-year and 2-year treasury spread, we can see that the …
If we take a look at the overall occupancy trends for the top 50 metros, we can see that a shallow U-shape has formed over the past few years. While this pattern shows a modest dip followed by a recovery, this may not be the story for individual metros.
This morning the BEA released its first official estimate of real GDP growth for 2Q2022. It came in at -0.9. The revised official rate from last quarter was -1.6, and depending on the definition used, some would now say that we are in a recession.
Are MOB rents significantly higher when in close proximity to a hospital? To isolate the effect a property’s distance from the nearest hospital has on rent, we looked at a dataset of MOB’s that are not affiliated with a hospital, nor directly on a hospital campus.